University of Washington Data Science

Predicting Hoefnagel Member Puzzle Hold Times

Jonathan Alexander, Madalyn Li, Hannah Luebbering, Aishwarya Singh

Introduction#

Hoefnagel Wooden Jigsaw Puzzle Club[1] is a company based in Port Townsend, Washington that contains a library of over 1000 puzzles rented by a network of puzzle enthusiasts worldwide. Their ultimate business goal is to reduce shipping costs while optimizing for consumer satisfaction. Right now, when an active member of the club finishes a puzzle, they start a return process on the site, which generates a shipping label for the user to ship this puzzle to the next user’s location in the overall puzzle network. This next location is determined by a model that considers several factors, such as the puzzle’s current location, the next user’s location, and the puzzle’s rank on the next user’s wishlist.

Project Notebooks#

See also

    Preliminary Exploratory Data Analysis
    Data Cleaning
  • Members Data
  • Packs Data
  • Merged Data
  • Dealing with nulls!!!
    Feature Engineering
    Feature Importance
  • OLS Model on complete data
  • LR Model on complete data
  • DT Model on complete data
  • RF Model on complete data
  • Table representing MAE
  • Table representing feature importance
    Final Models per person
  • LR model per person
  • DT model per person
  • RF model per person

Data Overview#

Data 1. Member Holdtimes
Number of Columns: 3 Number of Rows: 19733
Data 2. Puzzle Packs
Number of Columns: 4 Number of Rows: 920
Data 3. Combined Data
Number of Columns: 10 Number of Rows: 18255

Combined Data Preview#

import pandas as pd
member_df = pd.read_csv("data/df_cleaned.csv", header = 0)
member_df.head(4)
memberID holdtime puzzlepack pack_name piece_count_1 piece_count_2 difficulty_rating_1 difficulty_rating_2 brand_1 brand_2 num_puzzles
0 member1 2.939411 Artifact Puzzles Justin Hillgrove Word Travels... Artifact Puzzles Justin Hillgrove Word Travels... 456 548 1 2 Artifact Artifact 2
1 member1 0.998885 DaVici Puzzles Full Moon Feast DaVici Puzzles ... DaVici Puzzles Full Moon Feast DaVici Puzzles ... 195 220 1 3 DaVici DaVici 2
2 member1 10.865032 DaVici Puzzles Flying Frigate DaVici Puzzles H... DaVici Puzzles Flying Frigate DaVici Puzzles H... 332 164 1 1 DaVici DaVici 2
3 member1 22.083971 Liberty Puzzles Haeckel Hummingbirds Nautilus ... Liberty Puzzles Haeckel Hummingbirds Nautilus ... 485 222 2 2 Liberty Nautilus 2

Citations#

1

Hoefnagel Wooden Jigsaw Puzzle Club. URL: https://www.woodenjigsawpuzzles.com/ (visited on 2023-03-15).